![]() Previous studies have shown that systematic differences exist in the accuracy of teacher expectations of subsequent achievement across groups of pupils. The Covid-19 pandemic led to the use of assessments from teacher expectations for determining academic performance in the UK, following heavy criticism of the UK Government’s initial statistical model for exam results which was reported to have widespread inconsistencies. However, recent policy updates highlight how this is not always the case. Given these advantages and disadvantages, teacher expectations can be used for early assessment and streaming before being replaced by formalised testing and assessment later in schooling. Third, teachers may only have a small sample of previous students to draw upon so the accuracy of their expectations of future pupil performance may be dependent on their level of experience 25. Teachers with larger class sizes have less individual contact time with each pupil, meaning that their expectations may be less reliable than teachers with smaller classes 24. Second, variation in teacher and classroom characteristics may result in systematic differences in the accuracy of teacher expectations. Teacher expectation theory posits that while teachers form inferences about their student’s future academic achievement for individuals and groups of students, their expectations of pupils may be biased by students’ backgrounds 21, 22, 23. First, there is potential for either conscious or unconscious bias against specific pupils or groups, such as by gender, socioeconomic background, ethnicity or special educational needs status 6, 10, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20. However, disadvantages also exist with teacher expectations. ![]() For example, expectations may avoid a misleading representation of a pupil’s ability if they tested on a particularly good or bad day, they avoid incentives to “teach to the test”, they may remove the stress of formalised testing, and they can ensure that ability is measured using a broader range of factors than test performance alone 13, 14, 15. ![]() These expectations are based on a teacher’s understanding and experience with pupils over an extended period and can have advantages over pupil achievement measured by test performance 11, 12. ![]() They can influence the subjects that pupils take, whether they are entered into an advanced stream, the level of exam they are entered to, how long they remain in education and ultimately their educational attainment 7, 8, 9, 10. Teachers’ expectations of ability can affect pupils’ academic achievement throughout their educational career from initial enrolment through to the end of compulsory schooling 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Despite correlation with the polygenic score, we found no strong evidence for genomewide SNP heritability in teacher reporting accuracy. The accuracy of teacher expectation related to pupil’s genetic liability to education as captured by a polygenic score for educational attainment. Furthermore, the accuracy of teacher expectation was patterned by pupil socioeconomic background but not teacher characteristics. We found that teacher expectation of achievement was strongly correlated with educational test scores. We investigated these relationships using nationally standardized exam results at ages 11 and 14 from a UK longitudinal cohort study. Associations between socioeconomic and demographic factors with teacher expectation accuracy have been demonstrated, but it is not known how teacher expectations of achievement may relate to genetic factors. ![]() Systematic discrepancies between teacher expectations of pupil achievement may therefore have a detrimental effect on children’s education. Teacher expectations of pupil ability can influence educational progression, impacting subsequent streaming and exam level. ![]()
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